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After talking to many people of all backgrounds, I have come to this conclusion. Regardless of all the campaigning, in the end, it comes down to this.

  1. Those who want stability for the next 5 years will vote for Dr Tony Tan.

    This includes white collared professionals, people nearing retirement and affluent people. We also need to take into account hardcore PAP loyalists.

  2. Those who want change will vote for the other 3 candidates.

    This includes people who have been sidelined despite economic growth, people who didn’t get their HDB flats or enter local universities etc. We also can include pro-opposition voters in this group.

Understanding this perspective, Dr Tony Tan will win 30% of the votes, Mr Tan Jee Say, the next popular candidate will win 25% of the vote and the remaining 45% of votes split evenly among Dr Tan Cheng Bock and Mr Tan Kin Lian.

Whether this is the deliberate intention of the Elections Department, the fact is Dr Tony Tan will win unless all the opposition voters unite behind one candidate.

As most of us propose. Mr Tan Jee Say seems to be the popular. Come Sunday morning, I hope to be proven wrong.